Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 28.792644 31.974538 35.605030 40.111495 45.639642 52.318511 61.193338
2025-06-15 24.021406 27.970317 32.867308 39.580109 48.888805 61.959944 83.080580
2025-06-22 20.939287 25.228154 30.886436 39.278819 52.212493 73.181582 115.266362
2025-06-29 18.531017 22.875182 28.870725 38.316730 54.189644 83.484693 157.380066
2025-07-06 17.488365 22.155247 28.921037 40.342383 61.675048 108.619747 282.395013
2025-07-13 16.096463 20.726835 27.654461 39.899972 64.554859 126.912257 470.843751
2025-07-20 15.111760 19.758032 26.920567 40.166440 68.988171 154.483013 1065.655483
2025-07-27 14.307436 18.959337 26.324538 40.523247 73.833048 191.328146 5541.397364
2025-08-03 13.549612 18.148686 25.588928 40.435523 77.623856 233.063541 NaN
2025-08-10 12.818863 17.310991 24.699890 39.849691 79.892056 275.466889 NaN
2025-08-17 12.277791 16.728726 24.184587 39.943781 84.290036 350.388728 NaN
2025-08-24 11.745689 16.117250 23.547690 39.647422 87.424788 438.007772 NaN
2025-08-31 11.224307 15.493632 22.840401 39.102003 89.698222 546.162849 NaN
2025-09-07 10.763964 14.941713 22.215557 38.649756 92.246767 707.035025 NaN
2025-09-14 10.368347 14.473340 21.705048 38.389555 95.568544 986.327842 NaN
2025-09-21 9.935006 13.915074 20.976561 37.477553 95.812858 1241.642432 NaN
2025-09-28 9.840133 13.930171 21.353424 39.437890 110.549739 5287.038738 NaN
2025-10-05 9.513302 13.521047 20.857067 39.015902 113.544468 19476.073858 NaN
2025-10-12 9.275084 13.254280 20.623760 39.274954 120.712824 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.060935 13.017862 20.431709 39.619974 129.049988 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.824503 12.728991 20.108584 39.536059 134.880053 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.564115 12.384736 19.645922 38.971731 137.113138 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 8.372350 12.156181 19.411127 39.062594 144.678491 NaN NaN